If California voters give the thumbs up in November to legalizing recreational marijuana, it could bring in as much as $1 billion annually in taxes for state and local governments – and reduce law enforcement costs by tens of millions more.
That’s the conclusion of state Legislative Analyst’s Office for the proposal that’s probably most likely to make the ballot, the Control, Regulate and Tax Adult Use of Marijuana Act or AUMA. The low end of tax revenue from the 15-percent tax on retail pot sales in the proposed initiative is “hundreds of millions.”
“Most of these funds would be required to be spent for specific purposes such as substance use disorder education, prevention, and treatment,” according to the LAO.
I’m counting 18 possible pot-legalization initiative proposals submitted to the state. Not all will proceed to the signature gathering phase. And there could be just one that actually makes the ballot.
Many legalization advocates seem to be rallying around AUMA, which has backing – and $500,000 toward collecting the 366,000 signatures needed – from billionaire Sean Parker, Napster founder and former Facebook president . The group, which got the green light to begin collecting signatures earlier this month, says it’s raised $750,000 in addition to Parker’s money so far.
Other suppporters include Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Pot and guns
When Gov. Jerry Brown starting getting peppered with questions about possible initiatives at his budget press conference earlier this month, he anticipated queries about the pot and gun control proposals – and said he wouldn’t be discussing them.
“Don’t smoke marijuana while you’re using your gun – I will say that,” he quipped, drawing laughter from the press gallery.
Brown did, however, give a signal that he was wary of an effort to hike the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2021, as called for in another ballot proposal.
“Raising the minimum wage can be good but it has to be done over time and it has to take into account recessions,” he said. “You increase the minimum wage too much and you put poor people out of work.”
Supermajority battle
Orange County will once again be key to determining whether Democrats wind up with a two-thirds supermajority in the state Legislature.
In 2014, the GOP took away Democrats’ supermajority in the Assembly and blocked Democrats from regaining a supermajority in the Senate. That came in part because Republican Janet Nguyen beat Democrat Jose Solorio for the Senate seat of termed-out Sen. Lou Correa, D-Santa Ana, and Republican Young Kim beat incumbent Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva, D-Fullerton.
A supermajority in both chambers would allow Democrats to raise taxes, put measures on the ballot and override gubernatorial vetoes without a single Republican vote.
In the 40-member Senate, Democrats need just one more seat to reach a 27-member supermajority. One critical race is the tri-county contest to replace termed-out Sen. Bob Huff, R-Diamond Bar. Republicans have a narrow 3.5-percentage point advantage in the district’s voter registration.
Former Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang, a Democrat who has shown he can raise money, moved into the district last year and will take on Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang, R-Diamond Bar. Orange County accounts for 71 percent of the district.
The 80-member Assembly has 51 Democrats, who need 54 to hit the two-thirds mark. They are expected to pick up one seat in an April special election to fill a vacancy. Democrats have a 19-percentage point advantage in the district.
Quirk-Silva will be vying to regain the Assembly seat she lost last time. Democrats have a negligible 1.4-point advantage in that district.
Helping Democrats on their 2014 effort is the boost in voter turnout they typically experience in presidential election years.
Contact the writer: mwisckol@ocregister.com